Monday 8 February 2010

Eurozone "Pigs" could lead us all to slaughter!!

In Saturday's Daily Telegraph the economics columnist Jeremy Warner has written an interesting article headed "Eurozone #Pigs# could lead us all to slaughter".
Warner writes "both Washington and London seem gripped by the sort of political paralysis that can indeed prove lethal. We should not assume that the sudden loss of confidence that has afflicted Greece - essentially a developing market economy that should never have been in the euro in the first place - will be confined to the "pigs" (Portugal Ireland, Greece and Spain). The burgeoning size of public indebtedness the world over makes all economies vulnerable."

On the following day Liam Halligan, in the Sunday Telegraph, notes that the budget deficit in the United Kingdom is running at 13 pct of GDP compared with 11 pct in Spain. I wonder if his figures include the borrowing figures of the Spanish regional governments and regional health authorities? I remember years ago the Andalusian health body Insalud seemed to take almost years in paying its suppliers. Personally, I think Mr Halligan is comparing apples with pears when he talks about the UK and Spain. For instance, our town halls might be useless and incompetent but they are not as corrupt as Spanish ones, which Brit expats are finding out to their cost.

I think Liam is also too harsh on the Tories since there is no point in David Cameron scaring the voters (who are a pretty dim lot in the UK) with ideas of public expenditure cuts. People who voted Labour in 1997, 2001 and 2005, knew that the middle classes would be crucified by tax rises and that there would be redistribution from the south-east to Labour areas. However, I would not expect these policies to figure explicitly in any Labour manifesto but more cunningly in phrases such as "opportunity and prosperity for all". Then, there would be increased funding on Labour councils and less funding for Conservative ones leading to
higher council tax bills for Tory voters.

I think both Labour and Conservatives will cut public expenditure and increase taxes.
We could save a few bob by pulling out of Afghanistan and lifting VAT to 20 pct
from the level of 17.5 pct. The Irish government has received quite a few plaudits in cutting the pay levels of the public sector by levels ranging from 5 pct to 15 pct. This would be fought tooth and nail by the trade unions here in the United Kingdom but we are already being softened up by stories on police overtime scams. In the private sector the choice has often been a stark one "Do you want a job or not?"
and people have had to take pay cuts, reduced pension schemes and loss of crucial overtime.

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