Thursday 15 January 2009

The low pound is not making a dent in trade figures.

Looking back at my posts I realise that I might both have praised and condemned the British government's engineered fall in sterling. The main factor in favour of the lower pound is that it would help make exports cheaper and imports more expensive. However, the low pound is not making a dent in UK trade figures. On an anecdotal basis it is making West End stores and restaurants busy. The low pound is also diverting UK tourists to non-euro destinations such as Turkey
www.searchaccountant.co.uk
However, low sterling contradicts the previous policy of the Bank of England to use the exchange rate of keeping a lid on inflation. There are worries that inflation will soar when the central bank takes too long to raise interest rates when the economy recovers. Another factor would the lack of government approval for tightening. Over the last year there is the sense that the Bank of England lost control of monetary events and lost its supposed independence.
On balance, I don't like a cheap pound but I think that having your own exchange rate is a great shock absorber when the government has made a complete horlicks of economic policy. It is probably not appreciated by our Eurozone neighbours, who want to sell into Britain (Treasure Island).

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