Tuesday 27 January 2009

Am I just being hysterical over national bankruptcy?

Today Lord Mandelson is saving the foreign-owned car industry in the United Kingdom.
Long-term the car industry would always relocate to where the customers are and that is basically China and the Far East. Unfortunately, you don't want the industry to relocate now given its ability to create direct and indirect jobs. I am sure Tata would prefer to make Jaguars in India and that was the original plan behind the acquisition of the UK manufacturer from U.S auto group Ford.
So am I just being hysterical over Albion going bankrupt, if long-term the country is not going to have a car industry with all of its exports and R&D?
I read a brilliant article by Roger Bootle in the Daily Telegraph rebutting UK bankruptcy but if you read economic commentators around the world they are arguing that major economic shifts are happening. For instance, Western living standards are going to decline and savings rates will return to normal levels, even in the United States. Things are serious when President Obama's Treasury Secretary is unpleasant to China about exchange rates.
www.searchaccountant.co.uk
I suppose Lord Mandelson, Lord Myners, Lady Vadera and Lord Turner are working hard to prevent UK bankruptcy. However,we are all hostage to how long the recession will last. Chancellor Alistair Darling has predicted a recovery in the second half of 2009 but if the recession lasts for longer then the pound could take some serious damage. I know it sounds suicidal but I would increase taxes now, which would ease the pain later on. This might lift sterling but to expect a manufacturing renaissance on lower exchange rates is just a delusion. I would try and encourage the retail buying of UK government bonds and gilts.

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