The euro could could collapse by the weekend!!

Dear Reader, the European single currency could collapse by the weekend! Or maybe not that soon but maybe by the beginning of 2012. The game is up if the Chinese and Japanese don't want to lend ten year money at very low rates to Germany. In today's Daily Mail an article on the U.S by Max Hastings described German leader Angela Merkel as an adequate city mayor. I think that it is a bit harsh.

While a recent article in the Times by the so-called economics expert Anatole Kaletsky shows him to be a bit deranged. OK it looks like a German takeover of Europe but if national governments want their budgets to be approved first in Berlin (Ireland, Greece etc) then it is up to them. For instance, nobody asked the Irish banks to massively expand their balance sheets and go bust taking the country with it. I read once that a Irish bank took a big group of local property developers to Chicago on a jolly as a way of getting loan business.

Apparently, Ireland wants to review its bail-out package since the country looks stupid trying to pay back its debts with the Greeks getting debt relief (sovereign bond haircut) of at least 50 pct from the commercial banks. If Ireland leaves the euro, I don't think Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Bank would be too impressed!

What can we do in the UK? Cutting personal and business taxes (perhaps slowly) would would help (the Laffer curve). Hope more companies follow the example of European aircraft manufacturer Airbus and Swiss food group Nestle in
announcing new jobs. Sack Chris Huhne and rethink the windpower programme.

To protect social cohesion/integration, if things get really nasty, one idea would be to reintroduce some kind of conscription focusing on green projects, looking after the elderly etc without the military angle. If you are paying benefits to the hoodies, you might as well get them doing something useful.

UK chancellor George Osborne might talk up infrastructure projects but we are where we are. The infrastructure projects are too smaill and they will take too long. Expecting rich sovereign wealth funds to invest in "Boris Island" is just pie in the sky!!

Columnist Peter Oborne opines that the collapse of the euro will completely discredit the European elites. As long as it shuts up that EC idiot Jose Manuel Barroso I would be happy. He has been European Commission president since November 2004, so it is time for a change.

David Cameron did not have to go begging to Berlin!!

Dear Readers, I thought the recent trip by British premier David Cameron was degrading. I do not see any point in begging the Germans for anything. If Angela Merkel wants to see the Euro collapse, then it is up to her. I can understand the German electorate not wanting to underwrite the crazy economics in countries such as Italy and Greece, where the local populations can retire a lot earlier than in Germany. However, expecting Greece, Italy and Spain to reform at breakneck speed is pointless.

For instance, Mariano Rajoy has won the general election in Spain for the centrist-right Partido Popular. He does not strike me as a Spanish Maggie Thatcher in the making prepared to reform the labour market (taking on the unions, ending collective bargaining etc), reducing the 17 regional governments to just two (the Catalans and Basques) or reforming the university sector, where lots of Spanish students spend years learning rubbish subjects.

However, I would be loath to give Sr Rajoy advice on these areas since the United Kingdom has exactly the same problems (politically motivated public sector unions),
the expensive Welsh and Scots and a non-performing university system. However, some British universities are the best in the world while Spanish business schools featured very strongly in a recent Economist survey. Spain has a great tourism sector
winning back business with the collapse of places like Tunisia and Egypt. What the country needs is time to get back on his feet after the mismanagement of Zapatero.

As for Italy, its banks did not buy many Greek government bonds, its citizens are wealthier than Germans and the country has some great companies and top managerial talent. However, Italy will never really pay off its debt mountain. One common problem for Italy and Spain is the level of corruption, especially siphoning off cash to fund political parties.

http://www.expatica.com/es/news/spanish-rss-news/spanish-corruption-probe-finds-millions-in-swiss-accounts---report_31311.html

I am sorry about the dilatory nature of posts!!

Dear Reader, I am sorry about the dilatory nature of posts. I used to like moaning a bit about former UK premier Gordon Brown but I could not get the same enthusiasm in complaining about David Cameron et al. However, I am getting a little irritated about
the incompetence of the Tory/Liberal administration. The main example of ths was the lack of protection for citizens during the summer riots. Given the amount of money we pay in tax and the amount of intrusion we face from the authorities, the UK population deserve a better deal.

So hopefully I will be back on the blog trail!!

Today, the press has been reporting George Osborne's negative comments about the French economy. I thought the British chancellor would have enough on his plate with
problems such as youth unemployment rather than worry about our neighbours. France has higher productivity per employee than us and some amazing world-class companies such as L'Oreal. The French also make pots of money from the design of the European Union (EU), which enable the country to survive its bonkers employment legislation, which restricts the hours people worked. This explains why you can be in France and not get a meal after 9pm.

Are there really opportunities in Tottenham?

I was a bit surprised when British Prime Minister David Cameron said there were opportunities in Tottenham on television last night. Whenever I go there, I am surprised how little the place has changed over the years. Let's hope Spurs will be able to build its new stadium at White Hart Lane, which might give the area a bit of pep.

Education minister Michael Gove is still with us!!

With the United Kingdom falling foul of Murdochmania, the education minister Michael Gove is still trundling along. I suppose his reforms might work but they could take a long time to make the normal, bog-standard comprehensive any different. The move to
academy status and giving head teachers more independence might help but there are not enough inspirational head teachers to go round.

In an interesting article former Education minister Estelle Morris says there is no
big picture strategy just quite a few minor changes based on a narrow political focus.

It looks like Michael Gove is sinking without trace.

It looks like the UK Coalition Government's schools minister Michael Gove is sinking without trace. His "free schools" policy seems to be hitting the buffers while each major decision has to be followed by a U-turn. I have to accept that it is not easy stepping up from a job of newspaper columnist to running a major government department and certainly not easy dealing with the educational establishment in England. Apparently, Mr Gove is a good friend of Prime Minister David Cameron, but perhaps that will not save him from the axe.

I don't think the Department of Education expected to clamp down on the possible teaching of creationism by potential free schools and it is difficult to argue against the assertion from "Labour at the Chalkface" that Gove is incompetent.

The wheels are already falling off the coalition's policy for universities.

The wheels are already falling off the coalition government's policy for English universities. I don't think the powers-that-be expected universities such as Exeter,
Manchester and Essex to start charging £9000 a year. We can thank two brain
David Willetts for that.
Last week's Sunday Times was a bit depressing. James Dyson said it was madness educating our competitors and complained that some Chinese students were spies while there was a story that Oxford University was not taking cheating and plagiarism seriously.

I went to a polytechnic and we had quite a few lessons during the week and we were expected to go them. The common refrain from students is that they have acres of free time and the experience is not quite as portrayed in the prospectus. I do feel sorry for university lecturers trying to teach the increase in student numbers and do research. However, it was unfair for some lecturers to go on strike recently in defence of their pensions. That is an issue, which should be negotiated.