I have struggled to get excited about the UK general election campaign because in reality it seems to have been going on for so long. It was a surprise Nick Clegg winning the first televised debate but for me even more of a surprise was Gordon Brown campaigning on the economy, which is a pretty poor one. David Cameron has had to change tactics. But
whoever you vote for, I think it is very important that you do vote. I am saddened by the low electoral turnout. Perhaps we should consider a compulsory voting system like in Australia.
I was surprised that so few of the British expat community vote in percentage terms. But this community seems to want the UK government to act on their behalf when things go wwong such as the bulldozing of illegal appartments in southern Spain.
The volcanic ash cloud from Iceland has at least reduced the UK electoral coverage
and some areas around Heathrow must have enjoyed the quiet skies. My nipper says that Kew Gardens was a real treat!
Is it really a three horse race? It would be interesting if the Liberal Democrats really did top the number of votes nationwide and lost out on the first-past-the-post system.
Tuesday, 20 April 2010
Tuesday, 16 March 2010
Gilts at just over 4 pct but for how long?
British government bonds or gilts are trading at just over 4 pct but for how long? The Bank of England has artificially distorted the market by buying £200bn worth as part of its quantitative easing (QE) programme. There is now a pause in the gilt buying by the UK central bank but inflation is running at 3 pct and the pound is getting a right kicking in the foreign exchange markets at around $.150.
We have annual public borrowing of £180bn, which is over 12 pct of GDP and the highest per capita level of any big economy.
**** These figures were later revised downwards in the last Darling budget but are still high.
We have annual public borrowing of £180bn, which is over 12 pct of GDP and the highest per capita level of any big economy.
**** These figures were later revised downwards in the last Darling budget but are still high.
Thursday, 11 March 2010
Sorry about the long delay since the last blog!!
I am sorry about the long delay since the last blog, which was perhaps an unfair diatribe (are'nt diatribes always unfair) against British premier Gordon Brown. Since the last blog Brown has survived the Chilcot waffle and a further decline in sterling. It appears Brown was less than transparent about his role as Chancellor of the Exchequer in the funding of defence expenditure. What was obvious was Brown was not going to take the blame for anything.
However, it looks like there could be a double dip recession in the United Kingdom with the rise in VAT to 17.5 pct and the end of the car scrappage scheme. The economy is still in a very fragile state and Brown is perhaps gambling on a return to growth to make a dent into the public sector deficit. Yet the markets fear that if Brown remains as prime minister, he would put Ed Balls as
chancellor.
The message of "blood, sweat and tears" from Tory shadow chancellor George Osborne has not really set Middle England alight. The Conservatives are obviously not going to attract too many seats in the Labour client regions of Scotland and Wales. They have got to win a battle against Lib Dems and Labour in English seats. The Lord Ashcroft affair makes David Cameron look weak.
Whatever party wins the forthcoming UK general election it will have to deal with a
National Health Service (NHS) sliding towards bankruptcy. The primary care trusts or PCTs are already running out of money and still the NHS is more geared towards its employees than its patients.
In London, there are proposals to cut A&E and maternity
services. In the north of the capital all roads seem to lead to the Royal Free at Hampstead with the plans for consolidation/centralisation of services.
There will have to be some real productivity improvements/changes in the NHS. A hard nosed attitude over missed appointments, staff absenteeism and treating tourists for free would make a difference at the margin. Labour has trumpeted its planned increase in NHS expenditure for the next couple of years but after accounting for the rise in national insurance (NI) payments, PFI charges etc this will leave little extra for the average patient.
However, it looks like there could be a double dip recession in the United Kingdom with the rise in VAT to 17.5 pct and the end of the car scrappage scheme. The economy is still in a very fragile state and Brown is perhaps gambling on a return to growth to make a dent into the public sector deficit. Yet the markets fear that if Brown remains as prime minister, he would put Ed Balls as
chancellor.
The message of "blood, sweat and tears" from Tory shadow chancellor George Osborne has not really set Middle England alight. The Conservatives are obviously not going to attract too many seats in the Labour client regions of Scotland and Wales. They have got to win a battle against Lib Dems and Labour in English seats. The Lord Ashcroft affair makes David Cameron look weak.
Whatever party wins the forthcoming UK general election it will have to deal with a
National Health Service (NHS) sliding towards bankruptcy. The primary care trusts or PCTs are already running out of money and still the NHS is more geared towards its employees than its patients.
In London, there are proposals to cut A&E and maternity
services. In the north of the capital all roads seem to lead to the Royal Free at Hampstead with the plans for consolidation/centralisation of services.
There will have to be some real productivity improvements/changes in the NHS. A hard nosed attitude over missed appointments, staff absenteeism and treating tourists for free would make a difference at the margin. Labour has trumpeted its planned increase in NHS expenditure for the next couple of years but after accounting for the rise in national insurance (NI) payments, PFI charges etc this will leave little extra for the average patient.
Saturday, 13 February 2010
Scottish machine politician cries on telly!!
There have been heart rendering stories of a Scottish machine politician crying on a set-up interview with Piers Morgan. You can't play it both ways Gordon Brown. You either protect your family from the public gaze or you use them for your political ends. For instance, your performance allows me to say that your wife has so many charity engagements here and in the United States that no way is she looking after the family. Sorry, the Daily Mail has already said it!!
The new book by Lance Price, which I have yet to read, does not give you a very flattering picture. I get the sense that over half of the Labour Party would be estatic, if you were run over by a Clapham omnibus. That might be a bit harsh but Mr Brown, you screwed up my pension (dividend tax changes) and cost me a fortune in council tax paying for all those Labour areas. I would have forgiven you if Great Britain had pulled out its troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. The US anyway have been critical about our military performance (Basra and Balaclava, army disasters beginning with B?) Sorry, Singapore begins with an S). However, that would have screwed up your chances of top international jobs a la Blair when you retire. Or are you going to write your memoirs and explain how you employed a yob like McBride?
You are always grandstanding on the world stage but I get the impression that the IMF thinks you are an economic cretin. How you let Lady Ashton get a top EU job is beyond me. She is an easy pot shot for the French. Ashton should never have been let out of UK quango land.
However, Gordon, you are a very determined politician. I think the class card strategy might be working with the dim British electorate. The Tory Party does seem to have been taken over by Old Etonians and Cameron cuties. I get the sense the US would prefer working with you. Dave has never really hit it off with the Americans. I know the European Union would be aghast if the Tories got in. Peter Mandelson saved you last year from your Cabinet revolt but as you are not really a loyal kind of guy, he has been disappointed by your behaviour since.
I think you might struggle in the forthcoming general election campaign. It will be a test of what the voters think of a Scottish machine politician.
PS. Dear Reader, I am sorry this might not be a balanced, nuanced view of a complicated individual but you should read Jeff Randall's demolition of Gordon Brown
in yesterday's Daily Telegraph.
The new book by Lance Price, which I have yet to read, does not give you a very flattering picture. I get the sense that over half of the Labour Party would be estatic, if you were run over by a Clapham omnibus. That might be a bit harsh but Mr Brown, you screwed up my pension (dividend tax changes) and cost me a fortune in council tax paying for all those Labour areas. I would have forgiven you if Great Britain had pulled out its troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. The US anyway have been critical about our military performance (Basra and Balaclava, army disasters beginning with B?) Sorry, Singapore begins with an S). However, that would have screwed up your chances of top international jobs a la Blair when you retire. Or are you going to write your memoirs and explain how you employed a yob like McBride?
You are always grandstanding on the world stage but I get the impression that the IMF thinks you are an economic cretin. How you let Lady Ashton get a top EU job is beyond me. She is an easy pot shot for the French. Ashton should never have been let out of UK quango land.
However, Gordon, you are a very determined politician. I think the class card strategy might be working with the dim British electorate. The Tory Party does seem to have been taken over by Old Etonians and Cameron cuties. I get the sense the US would prefer working with you. Dave has never really hit it off with the Americans. I know the European Union would be aghast if the Tories got in. Peter Mandelson saved you last year from your Cabinet revolt but as you are not really a loyal kind of guy, he has been disappointed by your behaviour since.
I think you might struggle in the forthcoming general election campaign. It will be a test of what the voters think of a Scottish machine politician.
PS. Dear Reader, I am sorry this might not be a balanced, nuanced view of a complicated individual but you should read Jeff Randall's demolition of Gordon Brown
in yesterday's Daily Telegraph.
Monday, 8 February 2010
Eurozone "Pigs" could lead us all to slaughter!!
In Saturday's Daily Telegraph the economics columnist Jeremy Warner has written an interesting article headed "Eurozone #Pigs# could lead us all to slaughter".
Warner writes "both Washington and London seem gripped by the sort of political paralysis that can indeed prove lethal. We should not assume that the sudden loss of confidence that has afflicted Greece - essentially a developing market economy that should never have been in the euro in the first place - will be confined to the "pigs" (Portugal Ireland, Greece and Spain). The burgeoning size of public indebtedness the world over makes all economies vulnerable."
On the following day Liam Halligan, in the Sunday Telegraph, notes that the budget deficit in the United Kingdom is running at 13 pct of GDP compared with 11 pct in Spain. I wonder if his figures include the borrowing figures of the Spanish regional governments and regional health authorities? I remember years ago the Andalusian health body Insalud seemed to take almost years in paying its suppliers. Personally, I think Mr Halligan is comparing apples with pears when he talks about the UK and Spain. For instance, our town halls might be useless and incompetent but they are not as corrupt as Spanish ones, which Brit expats are finding out to their cost.
I think Liam is also too harsh on the Tories since there is no point in David Cameron scaring the voters (who are a pretty dim lot in the UK) with ideas of public expenditure cuts. People who voted Labour in 1997, 2001 and 2005, knew that the middle classes would be crucified by tax rises and that there would be redistribution from the south-east to Labour areas. However, I would not expect these policies to figure explicitly in any Labour manifesto but more cunningly in phrases such as "opportunity and prosperity for all". Then, there would be increased funding on Labour councils and less funding for Conservative ones leading to
higher council tax bills for Tory voters.
I think both Labour and Conservatives will cut public expenditure and increase taxes.
We could save a few bob by pulling out of Afghanistan and lifting VAT to 20 pct
from the level of 17.5 pct. The Irish government has received quite a few plaudits in cutting the pay levels of the public sector by levels ranging from 5 pct to 15 pct. This would be fought tooth and nail by the trade unions here in the United Kingdom but we are already being softened up by stories on police overtime scams. In the private sector the choice has often been a stark one "Do you want a job or not?"
and people have had to take pay cuts, reduced pension schemes and loss of crucial overtime.
Warner writes "both Washington and London seem gripped by the sort of political paralysis that can indeed prove lethal. We should not assume that the sudden loss of confidence that has afflicted Greece - essentially a developing market economy that should never have been in the euro in the first place - will be confined to the "pigs" (Portugal Ireland, Greece and Spain). The burgeoning size of public indebtedness the world over makes all economies vulnerable."
On the following day Liam Halligan, in the Sunday Telegraph, notes that the budget deficit in the United Kingdom is running at 13 pct of GDP compared with 11 pct in Spain. I wonder if his figures include the borrowing figures of the Spanish regional governments and regional health authorities? I remember years ago the Andalusian health body Insalud seemed to take almost years in paying its suppliers. Personally, I think Mr Halligan is comparing apples with pears when he talks about the UK and Spain. For instance, our town halls might be useless and incompetent but they are not as corrupt as Spanish ones, which Brit expats are finding out to their cost.
I think Liam is also too harsh on the Tories since there is no point in David Cameron scaring the voters (who are a pretty dim lot in the UK) with ideas of public expenditure cuts. People who voted Labour in 1997, 2001 and 2005, knew that the middle classes would be crucified by tax rises and that there would be redistribution from the south-east to Labour areas. However, I would not expect these policies to figure explicitly in any Labour manifesto but more cunningly in phrases such as "opportunity and prosperity for all". Then, there would be increased funding on Labour councils and less funding for Conservative ones leading to
higher council tax bills for Tory voters.
I think both Labour and Conservatives will cut public expenditure and increase taxes.
We could save a few bob by pulling out of Afghanistan and lifting VAT to 20 pct
from the level of 17.5 pct. The Irish government has received quite a few plaudits in cutting the pay levels of the public sector by levels ranging from 5 pct to 15 pct. This would be fought tooth and nail by the trade unions here in the United Kingdom but we are already being softened up by stories on police overtime scams. In the private sector the choice has often been a stark one "Do you want a job or not?"
and people have had to take pay cuts, reduced pension schemes and loss of crucial overtime.
Saturday, 6 February 2010
A rant against David Lammy, Labour MP for Tottenham.
I have nothing personal against David Lammy, Labour MP for Tottenham. However, I think he is a bit of a worm for announcing major cuts in UK budget expenditure for British
universities in his role of minister.
As an ex-alumnus of Harvard Law School and a big pal of Obama, he himself has benefitted from a world-class education. The least Lammy could do his resign his UK ministerial post. In the 1960s Labour Chancellor of Exchequer, Jim Callaghan, resigned after a devaluation and still made it to Prime Minister in the 1970s. A resignation might do the political career of Lammy some good. He is famous for his leaden performances in the
House of Commons.
It is estimated that 200,000 kids could miss out on an university place in 2010-11.
There is a high number of applicants due to various factors such as a birth-rate bulge, disguised unemployment, gap-year students and places going to Chinese and Indian students, whom the universities can charge virtually what they like in terms of fees. The grove of academe!!
Lammy says that university expenditure has risen by 25 pct since 1997, when Labour got into power. However, I think National Health Service expenditure has risen by 100 pct during the same period.
Part of Lammy's current job is chasing up on Islamist extremists in our universities.
I don't think the United States is overly impressed by the role of University College of London (UCL) in educating the Detroit bomber.
Note for our foreign readers: Tottenham is the famous home of the Tottenham Hotspur (Spurs) football club based at White Hart Line. Perhaps it is fair to say that the
fans, who go to the matches, do not share the same demographic profile as the current residents of the area. A lot of the fans have moved out to Essex and
Hertfordshire.
Tottenham is now locally famous for deprivation, poverty and Turkish gangland violence.
universities in his role of minister.
As an ex-alumnus of Harvard Law School and a big pal of Obama, he himself has benefitted from a world-class education. The least Lammy could do his resign his UK ministerial post. In the 1960s Labour Chancellor of Exchequer, Jim Callaghan, resigned after a devaluation and still made it to Prime Minister in the 1970s. A resignation might do the political career of Lammy some good. He is famous for his leaden performances in the
House of Commons.
It is estimated that 200,000 kids could miss out on an university place in 2010-11.
There is a high number of applicants due to various factors such as a birth-rate bulge, disguised unemployment, gap-year students and places going to Chinese and Indian students, whom the universities can charge virtually what they like in terms of fees. The grove of academe!!
Lammy says that university expenditure has risen by 25 pct since 1997, when Labour got into power. However, I think National Health Service expenditure has risen by 100 pct during the same period.
Part of Lammy's current job is chasing up on Islamist extremists in our universities.
I don't think the United States is overly impressed by the role of University College of London (UCL) in educating the Detroit bomber.
Note for our foreign readers: Tottenham is the famous home of the Tottenham Hotspur (Spurs) football club based at White Hart Line. Perhaps it is fair to say that the
fans, who go to the matches, do not share the same demographic profile as the current residents of the area. A lot of the fans have moved out to Essex and
Hertfordshire.
Tottenham is now locally famous for deprivation, poverty and Turkish gangland violence.
Friday, 5 February 2010
For our American readers the JT problem explained!
I am assuming there are American readers of this priceless blog and so I will explain a bit about the John Terry (JT) scandal. You lot are used to your sporting heroes being overpaid and oversexed, which we share, although there is not the same problem over the use of weapons. Being captain of the England football team is still an honour here and team manager Fabio Capello had warned his players to behave up to the run-up to the World Cup in South Africa. Dipping your wick with your mate's ex-bird is not really a hanging offence but we got to put our best foot forward. So, Capello just took a 12 minute meeting to strip the captaincy off
Terry.
On a personal note a few years ago I was behind the Chelsea goal at Stamford Bridge when JT gathered the ball, took a few paces and then delivered this amazing curved pass to the left wing. It was literally a thing of sublime beauty. And I am a ManU supporter!
Terry.
On a personal note a few years ago I was behind the Chelsea goal at Stamford Bridge when JT gathered the ball, took a few paces and then delivered this amazing curved pass to the left wing. It was literally a thing of sublime beauty. And I am a ManU supporter!
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