Gilts at just over 4 pct but for how long?

British government bonds or gilts are trading at just over 4 pct but for how long? The Bank of England has artificially distorted the market by buying £200bn worth as part of its quantitative easing (QE) programme. There is now a pause in the gilt buying by the UK central bank but inflation is running at 3 pct and the pound is getting a right kicking in the foreign exchange markets at around $.150.

We have annual public borrowing of £180bn, which is over 12 pct of GDP and the highest per capita level of any big economy.

**** These figures were later revised downwards in the last Darling budget but are still high.

Sorry about the long delay since the last blog!!

I am sorry about the long delay since the last blog, which was perhaps an unfair diatribe (are'nt diatribes always unfair) against British premier Gordon Brown. Since the last blog Brown has survived the Chilcot waffle and a further decline in sterling. It appears Brown was less than transparent about his role as Chancellor of the Exchequer in the funding of defence expenditure. What was obvious was Brown was not going to take the blame for anything.
However, it looks like there could be a double dip recession in the United Kingdom with the rise in VAT to 17.5 pct and the end of the car scrappage scheme. The economy is still in a very fragile state and Brown is perhaps gambling on a return to growth to make a dent into the public sector deficit. Yet the markets fear that if Brown remains as prime minister, he would put Ed Balls as
chancellor.
The message of "blood, sweat and tears" from Tory shadow chancellor George Osborne has not really set Middle England alight. The Conservatives are obviously not going to attract too many seats in the Labour client regions of Scotland and Wales. They have got to win a battle against Lib Dems and Labour in English seats. The Lord Ashcroft affair makes David Cameron look weak.
Whatever party wins the forthcoming UK general election it will have to deal with a
National Health Service (NHS) sliding towards bankruptcy. The primary care trusts or PCTs are already running out of money and still the NHS is more geared towards its employees than its patients.
In London, there are proposals to cut A&E and maternity
services. In the north of the capital all roads seem to lead to the Royal Free at Hampstead with the plans for consolidation/centralisation of services.
There will have to be some real productivity improvements/changes in the NHS. A hard nosed attitude over missed appointments, staff absenteeism and treating tourists for free would make a difference at the margin. Labour has trumpeted its planned increase in NHS expenditure for the next couple of years but after accounting for the rise in national insurance (NI) payments, PFI charges etc this will leave little extra for the average patient.