I suppose Tony Blair was alot brighter and intelligent than people gave credit for. He stood down from the British premiership when his reputation was still intact, bar Iraq, and he will go down in history as electorally the most successful Labour leader
in their history. He will outstrip Gordon Brown, who will go down as a Labour leader
who never won a general election. Blair attracted disaffected Conservative voters in a way Brown will never be able to since he has tried to tax them into the ground.
(Sorry, I am just thinking about my shredded defined benefit pension plan.)
www.searchaccountant.co.uk
I always thought Gordon Brown's economic skills were poor and in 1997 he benefitted from the strong position left by the then Tory chancellor Kenneth Clarke. Now, we can
see the UK prime minister has poor political skills as well. I bet he regrets supporting Harriet Harman in the election for Labour deputy leader. To gain plaudits with the Labour Left, Brown was unnecessarily insulting to George W. Bush, who was still President of the United States at the time. I don't think Gordon is top of the Christmas card list for the guys at the Pentagon following the disaster at Basra.
The British national press are coming out with reports that cabinet discipline has broken down and that nobody in Labour, with the exception of Gordon Brown, believes that they will win the next election. Leaving the general election until 2010 was a decision, which showed that the Prime Minister was less confident in his own abilities. It is better to narrowly lose an election than get wiped out (like John Major, who at least won a general election). If British unemployment is going to reach 3m, it takes absolute ages to get it down again. If I was Gordon I would go for a May election and to try and get a creditable result.
One journalist quoted a cabinet minister, who said that all politicians make enemies but Gordon has proportionally made too many. Both Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair
attracted massive support, both politically and personally. So, Gordon can go on about "deglobalisation" to his heart's content but that does not really play well with the voters. Apparently, in the past 18 months he has not made a single speech about crime. Is that rational behaviour for a voter? And in this important area Gordon appointed the venal Jacqui Smith as Home Secretary. Goodbye Gordon!
Friday, 20 February 2009
Monday, 16 February 2009
Paul Moore and Jacqui Smith, hero and villain!
It is very difficult to see what famous people are really like. We hope that British Prime Minister Gordon Brown is not as bad as the press makes out. But sometimes we can see through the spin and find out what people, especially politicians, are like.
The credit crunch has produced the unlikely hero in Paul Moore, the whistleblower at
Halifax (HBOS). The Prime Minister tried to diminish him by pointing to the independent report carried out by KPMG. However, it is unlikely that the accountant giant was objective on Mr Moore, since he was a former partner of KPMG. Also, the accountancy firm KPMG obtained major income from Halifax (HBOS) and would hope that this happy situation would continue. Gordon kept on going on about the independence of the report but how could it be independent?
Following the departure of Mr Moore, Halifax appointed a sales person as the head of group risk. If New Labour acolytes got peerages then Mr Moore deserves a dukedom for what he has done. The spin has been that nobody warned about the credit crunch but with Mr Moore, we do have an example of an internal warning at a major bank.
Declaration of interest: I used to be a shareholder of Halifax but had to sell at about four quid since we were broke. It has caused me sadness that such as a fine institution as the Halifax, which was founded in the Cock Inn in the 19th century,
has crashed. It is going to be carnage for Halifax and Bank of Scotland employees.
Lloyds is going to either give the bank to HM Government or carry out a major restructuring. The upside for Lloyds is that it has knocked out a major competitor.
www.searchaccountant.co.uk
For our villain, perhaps she is a pantomime one, step this way the venal Ms Jacqui Smith. An article in the Sunday Times says that she has even discredited herself amongst her own Labour supporters with the £116,000 of house expenses.
Her neighbours have called her a liar over the Smith claims of how long
she stays at the South London address. The Tory party have started making personal attacks while the Tory shadow home secretary Chris Grayling says she looks completely out of her depth. Some civil servants prefer Ms Smith's former deputy Mr Tony McNulty. Apparently, Ms Smith fears the sack in any cabinet
reshuffle.
What is with it with these Labour Home Secretaries? Why are they completely useless?
There was old Blunkett and the use of the train pass by his bit of fluff, which was
dishonest.
The credit crunch has produced the unlikely hero in Paul Moore, the whistleblower at
Halifax (HBOS). The Prime Minister tried to diminish him by pointing to the independent report carried out by KPMG. However, it is unlikely that the accountant giant was objective on Mr Moore, since he was a former partner of KPMG. Also, the accountancy firm KPMG obtained major income from Halifax (HBOS) and would hope that this happy situation would continue. Gordon kept on going on about the independence of the report but how could it be independent?
Following the departure of Mr Moore, Halifax appointed a sales person as the head of group risk. If New Labour acolytes got peerages then Mr Moore deserves a dukedom for what he has done. The spin has been that nobody warned about the credit crunch but with Mr Moore, we do have an example of an internal warning at a major bank.
Declaration of interest: I used to be a shareholder of Halifax but had to sell at about four quid since we were broke. It has caused me sadness that such as a fine institution as the Halifax, which was founded in the Cock Inn in the 19th century,
has crashed. It is going to be carnage for Halifax and Bank of Scotland employees.
Lloyds is going to either give the bank to HM Government or carry out a major restructuring. The upside for Lloyds is that it has knocked out a major competitor.
www.searchaccountant.co.uk
For our villain, perhaps she is a pantomime one, step this way the venal Ms Jacqui Smith. An article in the Sunday Times says that she has even discredited herself amongst her own Labour supporters with the £116,000 of house expenses.
Her neighbours have called her a liar over the Smith claims of how long
she stays at the South London address. The Tory party have started making personal attacks while the Tory shadow home secretary Chris Grayling says she looks completely out of her depth. Some civil servants prefer Ms Smith's former deputy Mr Tony McNulty. Apparently, Ms Smith fears the sack in any cabinet
reshuffle.
What is with it with these Labour Home Secretaries? Why are they completely useless?
There was old Blunkett and the use of the train pass by his bit of fluff, which was
dishonest.
Friday, 13 February 2009
Here goes "British jobs for British workers!"
I try and avoid any mention of race, ethnic origin, immigration and migration because
you bound to put peoples' backs up. But the debate over "British jobs for British workers" raises quite a few issues. To state my own ethnic orign, I am white, born and living in London. I subscribe to the OneWorldWeek mantra, 5.7bn people but one humanity.
When it comes to the crunch HM Government is only responsible for its own citizens. If all the UK jobs are being taken by foreigners, then of course the government will impose restrictions on entry even if they are EU citizens. I think the Irish government was recently close to imposing restrictions on
Eastern Europeans.
This leads to the possibility that the current social composition of the United Kingdom is not helping us to cope with the economic downturn. If more indigenous workers are losing their jobs than foreign workers this will cause resentment.
Until recently we have had a pretty good run economically and despite this certain groups of foreign people are already unpopular with the
local population.
There is the mantra that immigration helps the economy grow but HM government carefully avoids doing studies on such a contentious area. MigrationWatch and the Economist have done studies, which point to a negligible contribution after the
inclusion of social costs. There have been studies about the Mexican wave in the United States but the scale of remittances makes it difficult to assess the level of economic contribution.
Foreign workers bring drive and enthusiasm. They keep the NHS afloat. We live in a global world and benefit from the trade links they bring. I don't think we could survive without Indian restaurants. Hard-working Eastern Europeans keep farms working throughout the United Kingdom. It is a very competitive world out there and companies, football clubs and businesses have long moved to getting the best people in. Glaxo appointed a Frenchman to live in the United States to manage a flagship UK business. It possibly did not work out in this case but we still need foreign talent to compete.
In conclusion, I believe in 5.7bn people and one humanity. I hope I have'nt annoyed my readers too much. We need a resumption of economic growth to mask/hide/resolve the tensions in the population. The benefits of immigration are probably overplayed (we are having a major economic downturn despite our high level of immigration?).
www.searchaccountant.co.uk
PS. Nobody is afraid of Gordon Brown anymore. The head of the statistics body ONS has just released some damaging statistics for HM Government on the number of foreign workers in the UK. Apparently, Labour MP Keith Vaz, who had some colourful finances, was fulminating against the release of these
statistics.
you bound to put peoples' backs up. But the debate over "British jobs for British workers" raises quite a few issues. To state my own ethnic orign, I am white, born and living in London. I subscribe to the OneWorldWeek mantra, 5.7bn people but one humanity.
When it comes to the crunch HM Government is only responsible for its own citizens. If all the UK jobs are being taken by foreigners, then of course the government will impose restrictions on entry even if they are EU citizens. I think the Irish government was recently close to imposing restrictions on
Eastern Europeans.
This leads to the possibility that the current social composition of the United Kingdom is not helping us to cope with the economic downturn. If more indigenous workers are losing their jobs than foreign workers this will cause resentment.
Until recently we have had a pretty good run economically and despite this certain groups of foreign people are already unpopular with the
local population.
There is the mantra that immigration helps the economy grow but HM government carefully avoids doing studies on such a contentious area. MigrationWatch and the Economist have done studies, which point to a negligible contribution after the
inclusion of social costs. There have been studies about the Mexican wave in the United States but the scale of remittances makes it difficult to assess the level of economic contribution.
Foreign workers bring drive and enthusiasm. They keep the NHS afloat. We live in a global world and benefit from the trade links they bring. I don't think we could survive without Indian restaurants. Hard-working Eastern Europeans keep farms working throughout the United Kingdom. It is a very competitive world out there and companies, football clubs and businesses have long moved to getting the best people in. Glaxo appointed a Frenchman to live in the United States to manage a flagship UK business. It possibly did not work out in this case but we still need foreign talent to compete.
In conclusion, I believe in 5.7bn people and one humanity. I hope I have'nt annoyed my readers too much. We need a resumption of economic growth to mask/hide/resolve the tensions in the population. The benefits of immigration are probably overplayed (we are having a major economic downturn despite our high level of immigration?).
www.searchaccountant.co.uk
PS. Nobody is afraid of Gordon Brown anymore. The head of the statistics body ONS has just released some damaging statistics for HM Government on the number of foreign workers in the UK. Apparently, Labour MP Keith Vaz, who had some colourful finances, was fulminating against the release of these
statistics.
Wednesday, 11 February 2009
The Chinese curse - "May you live in difficult times!"
I have read a series of excellent articles recently. For instance, in the Guardian there is yesterday's hatchet job against Labour minister Hazel Blears by George Monbiot. Today, you can read in the Daily Mail an article by Peter Oborne drawing from the comments by Labour minister Ed Balls that we will suffer in the UK the worst recession in a hundred years. Then, in the Daily Telegraph the American pundit
Irwin Stelzer opines today about the possible future of the UK and its choices in store.
For instance, can we afford a special relationship with the United States if we don't
invest in the military? Will there be a choice between an independent nuclear deterrent or pensioner care?
I think the underlying connection between Monbiot, Oborne and Stelzer, (besides being talented columnists) is that we have reached a watershed. We (or the politicians) are going to make some hard choices. They could fudge but this would probably lead to domestic unrest.
Monbiot savages Blears but she is not the only incompetent politician in the cabinet (the venal Jacqui Smith step this way). Oborne notes that the provincial solicitor background of Alistair Blair does not prepare him for the role of national finance chief in crisis. Stelzer cites Gordon Brown's doleful performance in Basra, which has questioned our reliability as an U.S ally.
So if the situation is so bad and we don't need incompetent ministers, then would Brown or Cameron appoint Vince Cable as Chancellor of the Exchequer? It might help confidence. If the British economy is possibly going to fall by 4 pct according to Bank of England governor Mervyn King (another friend of Brown?), is there going to be measures to promote small businesses and employment? This might go against the grain for Brown, who has just wanted to raise more and more taxes from the British economy. (A rise in national insurance anyone!).
www.searchifa.co.uk
So Gordon Brown looks part of the problem rather than part of the solution. I don't think we can avoid taking an axe against public sector expenditure. The Irish government is already cutting public sector pay and I expect we will have to do the same (obviously not before the election).
Commentators say we are going to have to make defence cuts and they look at the savings if we scrap our nuclear deterrent, which faces a costly upgrade. I doubt this will happen given the number of countries joining the nuclear bomb club. We might also have to invest in the conventional armed forces just for defensive purposes rather than to operate in far-flung areas such as Afghanistan and Iraq. However, there might have to be some tough choices on the future of the
RAF.
Labour has invested heavily in welfare, health and education. It would probably want
to cut spending over time by inflation. I would try and use the benefits paid to young people by getting them into some type of education, training and voluntary service. I don't think we can afford to give housing benefit to foreigners. Unfortunately, the NHS is going to have to charge A*E users, if they are there due to
their own culpability. These are old chestnuts but they don't go away. Why pay tax credits to people living in Poland?
We are going to have to review our relationship with the European Union. Letting our
currency collapse to block off imports was not very EU friendly and drew complaints
especially from France. The EU has not worked well in a crisis with some monumental bickering. However, either we are going to have to be fully committed, which will probably mean joining the euro or completely out of it. If we are going to be a poor nation then there is no point making ourselves poorer contributing to French
farmers.
Despite sending lots of money and bureaucrats to Brussels, the bail-outs of the European banking and car industries have followed national lines. The French want to rescue Renault but not its plant in the Czech republic. This contrasts with the various banking negotiations here with the Spanish banking group Banco Santander treated as a domestic institution.
In many respects our decision to stay or leave the European Union will be swayed by the decisions of France and Germany. Will Paris and Berlin pull out the stops to rescue countries such as Ireland, Spain and Italy? If they do, then in a few years I will think the main political parties will support a referendum calling for the United Kingdom to replace the pound with the euro. Membership or not has not prevented mass unemployment in Spain and in the UK but sheltering under the protection of a possible reserve currency might prove too attractive.
Irwin Stelzer opines today about the possible future of the UK and its choices in store.
For instance, can we afford a special relationship with the United States if we don't
invest in the military? Will there be a choice between an independent nuclear deterrent or pensioner care?
I think the underlying connection between Monbiot, Oborne and Stelzer, (besides being talented columnists) is that we have reached a watershed. We (or the politicians) are going to make some hard choices. They could fudge but this would probably lead to domestic unrest.
Monbiot savages Blears but she is not the only incompetent politician in the cabinet (the venal Jacqui Smith step this way). Oborne notes that the provincial solicitor background of Alistair Blair does not prepare him for the role of national finance chief in crisis. Stelzer cites Gordon Brown's doleful performance in Basra, which has questioned our reliability as an U.S ally.
So if the situation is so bad and we don't need incompetent ministers, then would Brown or Cameron appoint Vince Cable as Chancellor of the Exchequer? It might help confidence. If the British economy is possibly going to fall by 4 pct according to Bank of England governor Mervyn King (another friend of Brown?), is there going to be measures to promote small businesses and employment? This might go against the grain for Brown, who has just wanted to raise more and more taxes from the British economy. (A rise in national insurance anyone!).
www.searchifa.co.uk
So Gordon Brown looks part of the problem rather than part of the solution. I don't think we can avoid taking an axe against public sector expenditure. The Irish government is already cutting public sector pay and I expect we will have to do the same (obviously not before the election).
Commentators say we are going to have to make defence cuts and they look at the savings if we scrap our nuclear deterrent, which faces a costly upgrade. I doubt this will happen given the number of countries joining the nuclear bomb club. We might also have to invest in the conventional armed forces just for defensive purposes rather than to operate in far-flung areas such as Afghanistan and Iraq. However, there might have to be some tough choices on the future of the
RAF.
Labour has invested heavily in welfare, health and education. It would probably want
to cut spending over time by inflation. I would try and use the benefits paid to young people by getting them into some type of education, training and voluntary service. I don't think we can afford to give housing benefit to foreigners. Unfortunately, the NHS is going to have to charge A*E users, if they are there due to
their own culpability. These are old chestnuts but they don't go away. Why pay tax credits to people living in Poland?
We are going to have to review our relationship with the European Union. Letting our
currency collapse to block off imports was not very EU friendly and drew complaints
especially from France. The EU has not worked well in a crisis with some monumental bickering. However, either we are going to have to be fully committed, which will probably mean joining the euro or completely out of it. If we are going to be a poor nation then there is no point making ourselves poorer contributing to French
farmers.
Despite sending lots of money and bureaucrats to Brussels, the bail-outs of the European banking and car industries have followed national lines. The French want to rescue Renault but not its plant in the Czech republic. This contrasts with the various banking negotiations here with the Spanish banking group Banco Santander treated as a domestic institution.
In many respects our decision to stay or leave the European Union will be swayed by the decisions of France and Germany. Will Paris and Berlin pull out the stops to rescue countries such as Ireland, Spain and Italy? If they do, then in a few years I will think the main political parties will support a referendum calling for the United Kingdom to replace the pound with the euro. Membership or not has not prevented mass unemployment in Spain and in the UK but sheltering under the protection of a possible reserve currency might prove too attractive.
Monday, 9 February 2009
I was probably a bit harsh on Gordon in last post.
Re-reading my last post I realise I was probably a bit harsh on Gordon Brown, British Prime Minister. In many ways he has been quite successful. Wealth has been redistributed to different parts of the population and richer council areas have subsidised poorer ones. Devolution was introduced to give more jobs to the Labour Party. Gordon has antagonised our European partners, which I suppose is a plus but not if you need their help. Apparently, he can be extremely difficult to work with, which I thinks makes him quite interesting in a human kind of way.
However, Gordon has an inability to admit that he has been wrong. It would be helpful to do that since it might, might have avoided Sarkozy laying into him about the VAT cut. If Gordon had discussed this move beforehand with the retailers, then it would have helped to have some consensus.
www.searchaccountant.co.uk
On the bank rescue plan Gordon pretty much circumvented parliamentary discussion at the time but discussion might have resolved the issue of bonuses. It looks like an oversight not to get strings attached to the rescue packages. Some bankers would probably get bonuses for sacking people.
However, Gordon has an inability to admit that he has been wrong. It would be helpful to do that since it might, might have avoided Sarkozy laying into him about the VAT cut. If Gordon had discussed this move beforehand with the retailers, then it would have helped to have some consensus.
www.searchaccountant.co.uk
On the bank rescue plan Gordon pretty much circumvented parliamentary discussion at the time but discussion might have resolved the issue of bonuses. It looks like an oversight not to get strings attached to the rescue packages. Some bankers would probably get bonuses for sacking people.
Wednesday, 4 February 2009
Perhaps Darling is preparing for post Brown era?
In the last post I was extolling the performance of UK chancellor Alistair Darling, when I read a piece wondering why he had not turned up to the Davos forum but did find time to give an interview to a left wing magazine. Perhaps Darling is preparing for the post Gordon Brown era. In any event when the Chancellor warned about the possible severity of the recession last year he was stamped on by the Prime
Minister.
It is Darling, who is having to put in the donkey work on the British bank rescue plans. Brown is trying to avoid admitting any blame for the current predicament, which makes him look a not very sympathetic character. "No boom and bust" and "British jobs for British workers" now just look crass. Sucking up to the Chinese, what was that all about? It would be nice if they were interested in democracy as in free trade. I hoped that Brown told the Chinese to stop trying to hack into UK government sites.
www.searchaccountant.co.uk
The snow chaos and the loss of output make us look us third rate. The foreigners holed up at Heathrow must wonder if they are lost in a parallel universe. Obviously,
Gordon Brown is not responsible for the weather but it is another event, which shows
the UK off in a poor light. You get the impression is that the touchy-feely policies of the past few years have brought the country close to collapse. Councils say they can't spend the money on preparing for weather conditions that normally happen once in every 18 years but Westminster Council performed very well what about the
others?
I apologise for sounding like Victor Meldrew but when Gordon Brown says we are well-prepared to ride out the recession because corporate debt is low he is obviously not thinking of pub companies and housebuilders. I think he is off his head.
Minister.
It is Darling, who is having to put in the donkey work on the British bank rescue plans. Brown is trying to avoid admitting any blame for the current predicament, which makes him look a not very sympathetic character. "No boom and bust" and "British jobs for British workers" now just look crass. Sucking up to the Chinese, what was that all about? It would be nice if they were interested in democracy as in free trade. I hoped that Brown told the Chinese to stop trying to hack into UK government sites.
www.searchaccountant.co.uk
The snow chaos and the loss of output make us look us third rate. The foreigners holed up at Heathrow must wonder if they are lost in a parallel universe. Obviously,
Gordon Brown is not responsible for the weather but it is another event, which shows
the UK off in a poor light. You get the impression is that the touchy-feely policies of the past few years have brought the country close to collapse. Councils say they can't spend the money on preparing for weather conditions that normally happen once in every 18 years but Westminster Council performed very well what about the
others?
I apologise for sounding like Victor Meldrew but when Gordon Brown says we are well-prepared to ride out the recession because corporate debt is low he is obviously not thinking of pub companies and housebuilders. I think he is off his head.
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